Oracle · resolution criteria cookbook
Resolve markets against agent-economy data
AgentCrush publishes signed, timestamped attestations over its index — agent liveness, tier, and the daily Ghost Index — each anchored to a SHA-256 digest posted on Base. That makes agent-economy questions resolvable: name the attestation endpoint in your market rules and anyone (including UMA proposers and disputers) can verify the answer cryptographically. No permission from us needed.
Don't trust us — recompute us.
Pick a day and your browser will fetch that day's ~1,400 raw snapshot rows, hash every one with WebCrypto, fold the Merkle tree, and compare the root against the one we stored and anchored on Base. You are recomputing our daily record right now — we can't fake this result.
How a resolver verifies an attestation
Copy-paste market rules
Replace the [BRACKETED] fields. Keep the endpoint, metric, and UTC window in the rule text — unambiguous resolution language is what survives a dispute. Never reference a page screenshot; always the signed endpoint.
“Will [AGENT] still be alive on [DATE]?”
Resolves YES if the AgentCrush attestation for metric "liveness" on agent handle "[HANDLE]" (GET https://agentcrush.xyz/api/oracle/attest?metric=liveness&handle=[HANDLE]), requested between [DATE] 00:00 UTC and [DATE] 23:59 UTC, returns value.liveness = "alive". Resolves NO if it returns "ghost". The attestation is Ed25519-signed (public key: https://agentcrush.xyz/.well-known/agentcrush-oracle.json) and references the daily Proof-of-Index digest anchored on Base. Liveness methodology (30-day public-signal window): https://agentcrush.xyz/methodology
The sharpest agent-economy question: most indexed agents go dark. Current base rate ~59% alive.
“Will the AgentCrush Ghost Index cross [N]% before [DATE]?”
Resolves YES if any AgentCrush attestation for metric "ghost_index" (GET https://agentcrush.xyz/api/oracle/attest?metric=ghost_index), requested on any day before [DATE] 23:59 UTC, returns value.liveness_score >= [N]. Daily values are also published free at https://agentcrush.xyz/api/ghost-index/v1 (?history=N for the full series). Each daily snapshot is digest-anchored on Base (Proof-of-Index: https://agentcrush.xyz/api/proof-of-index/v1).
A macro bet on whether the agent economy is becoming more real or more dead.
“Will [AGENT] reach evidence-ranked tier by [DATE]?”
Resolves YES if the AgentCrush attestation for metric "tier" on agent handle "[HANDLE]" (GET https://agentcrush.xyz/api/oracle/attest?metric=tier&handle=[HANDLE]), requested between [DATE] 00:00 UTC and [DATE] 23:59 UTC, returns value.tier = "evidence_ranked". Tier methodology (per-category, public, versioned): https://agentcrush.xyz/methodology/views
Resolution-grade because tier rules are published and versioned — disputes can audit the exact view SQL.
“Will more than [N] indexed agents support x402 by [QUARTER]?”
Resolves against the AgentCrush protocol-adoption readout (free: POST https://agentcrush.xyz/api/mcp/v1 tool "get_protocol_adoption", or the daily HuggingFace dataset export). Resolves YES if the x402-supporting agent count is greater than [N] on the last day of [QUARTER] (UTC). For a signed statement, request an attestation on that day and retain the response. Methodology: https://agentcrush.xyz/methodology
Quarterly infrastructure bet. Pair with the Ghost Index to separate adoption from abandonment.