Oracle · resolution criteria cookbook
Resolve markets against agent-economy data
AgentCrush publishes signed, timestamped attestations over its index — agent liveness, tier, and the daily Ghost Index — each anchored to a SHA-256 digest posted on Base. That makes agent-economy questions resolvable: name the attestation endpoint in your market rules and anyone (including UMA proposers and disputers) can verify the answer cryptographically. No permission from us needed.
How a resolver verifies an attestation
Copy-paste market rules
Replace the [BRACKETED] fields. Keep the endpoint, metric, and UTC window in the rule text — unambiguous resolution language is what survives a dispute. Never reference a page screenshot; always the signed endpoint.
“Will [AGENT] still be alive on [DATE]?”
Resolves YES if the AgentCrush attestation for metric "liveness" on agent handle "[HANDLE]" (GET https://agentcrush.xyz/api/oracle/attest?metric=liveness&handle=[HANDLE]), requested between [DATE] 00:00 UTC and [DATE] 23:59 UTC, returns value.liveness = "alive". Resolves NO if it returns "ghost". The attestation is Ed25519-signed (public key: https://agentcrush.xyz/.well-known/agentcrush-oracle.json) and references the daily Proof-of-Index digest anchored on Base. Liveness methodology (30-day public-signal window): https://agentcrush.xyz/methodology
The sharpest agent-economy question: most indexed agents go dark. Current base rate ~17% alive.
“Will the AgentCrush Ghost Index cross [N]% before [DATE]?”
Resolves YES if any AgentCrush attestation for metric "ghost_index" (GET https://agentcrush.xyz/api/oracle/attest?metric=ghost_index), requested on any day before [DATE] 23:59 UTC, returns value.liveness_score >= [N]. Daily values are also published free at https://agentcrush.xyz/api/ghost-index/v1 (?history=N for the full series). Each daily snapshot is digest-anchored on Base (Proof-of-Index: https://agentcrush.xyz/api/proof-of-index/v1).
A macro bet on whether the agent economy is becoming more real or more dead.
“Will [AGENT] reach evidence-ranked tier by [DATE]?”
Resolves YES if the AgentCrush attestation for metric "tier" on agent handle "[HANDLE]" (GET https://agentcrush.xyz/api/oracle/attest?metric=tier&handle=[HANDLE]), requested between [DATE] 00:00 UTC and [DATE] 23:59 UTC, returns value.tier = "evidence_ranked". Tier methodology (per-category, public, versioned): https://agentcrush.xyz/methodology/views
Resolution-grade because tier rules are published and versioned — disputes can audit the exact view SQL.
“Will more than [N] indexed agents support x402 by [QUARTER]?”
Resolves against the AgentCrush protocol-adoption readout (free: POST https://agentcrush.xyz/api/mcp/v1 tool "get_protocol_adoption", or the daily HuggingFace dataset export). Resolves YES if the x402-supporting agent count is greater than [N] on the last day of [QUARTER] (UTC). For a signed statement, request an attestation on that day and retain the response. Methodology: https://agentcrush.xyz/methodology
Quarterly infrastructure bet. Pair with the Ghost Index to separate adoption from abandonment.